I wouldn't like to be laying Hamish at 100/1 101. The average stride length across the horse population is 24. The horses rated in that sweet spot in this year's race amount to. This is of paramount importance. So if your getting 6/4 on an 1/1 shot your edge is 2. Kelly gambling problem, and relate it to classical Markowitz portfolio optimization. Timeform best bets. All the more recently, the strategy has seen a renaissance, in response to claims that unbelievable investors Warren Buffett and. , a physicist and information theorist who worked at AT&T’s Bell Laboratories. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Featured Rugby. Thorp. Horse Racing Tips. 60) / 2 = 0. Use the Right Formula. This concept goes back to the days of horse racing, where there were. You think the horse has 50% of winning. Cricket. B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure (i. 10st 9lbs. The best staking plan debate. România. Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapping Library: New book about Kelly criterionA simple 'trick' with this strategy is to simply to back at the current lay price and lay at the current back price. US Horse Racing Tips as our US tipsters at TVG and Timeform. Under few conditions, using Monte Carlo simulations with different scenarios we prove that the Kelly criterion beats any other approach in many aspects. Kelly. Andrew Asquith. 33pts. the optimal strategy for a single horse and gave an incomplete solution to the problem with. Generally, in gambling scenarios (and some investing scenarios), the Kelly strategy will do better than any other strategy in the long run. 70 on the Betfair Sportsbook - should know plenty more today, having caught the eye in good races on. Timeform Radio Tips on Betfair. Betfair International Plc is licensed and regulated by the . 66% of your bank. In Chapter 5, normal distribution and multinominal logistic regression are introduced in estimating winning probability of each race horse. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion calculator horse racing or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 22m+ jobs. Fixed Odds & Multiples bets are placed with PPB Counterparty Services Limited which is. Correspondence Address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. With hand waving and basic math you can also use it to help guide your investment decisions. In his book Commonsense Betting, which is arguably the finest book written on the betting and the mathematics of horse-racing, US author Dick Mitchell wrote about various staking plans. to identify how to maximize the long-term growth rate of investments and has since been used successfully. They Kelly criterion is a formula used to determine how much of your money to place on a particular gamble. ple and correct procedure to apply the Kelly strategy for the general case. New show alert. Vanessa Ryle, Tony Calvin Kevin Blake, Dan Barber and Barry Orr discussed all five glorious days of racing and covered everything you need to know from Tuesday's starting stalls to the finish line. The most popular methodology for determining the optimal wager size is the Kelly Criterion. 1. French Ligue 1. The Real KC is very useful for outright betting as shown. With all the prior odds, the equation will add up to this: ( (4x 0. 4:00 min read. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. Only Starman (Evens) and Harry Angel (6/4. Julie Johnston ran on well in the closing stages, though, suggesting a return to form may be near, and that race has worked out well with the first and third both winning next time. We investigate the most popular approaches to the problem of sports betting investment based on modern portfolio theory and the Kelly criterion. In sports betting, the Kelly Criterion can be used. Kevin Blake is a horse racing pundit who works with ITV Racing, Sky Sports Racing and At The Races, as well as writing his regular Betting. The Kelly betting criterion ignores uncertainty in the probability of winning the bet and uses an estimated probability. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing. e. Horse Racing Tips: Tommie can be our rock in Sunday 9/1 Fontwell multiple ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Rachael Blackmore: Ain't That A Shame can go well in Troytown Handicap Chase; Horse. 1 – 1. 000. Red Mile VP Sees Sports Betting as Boost for Kentucky Horse Racing. com. Then, you divide 0. Three are three outcomes to the team game: Team1 wins. 00 x 0. Discover. Horse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Paul Nicholls' Ditcheat Diary: Daryl Jacob to ride Bravemansgame in Saturday's. Finally, in x7 we give some numerical examples to illustrate the methods. O. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. Total Performance Data have recorded his max stride at 26. 00) and should not include any additional symbols such. Such an outcome may apply to blackjack and horse racing, but rarely to capital markets investments. In this case: P= 0. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. In horse racing, this is based on the player's own handicapping of the race. @tony_calvin will be live on our Twitter spaces this and every Saturday from 8am for a 30 min update show with @mccueryan12 chatting Going Updates Market Movers ITV Races and. But on those occasions when you lose, you will lose your stake of $57. Monthly Breakdown. This mare beat Jima's Gold at Turfway Park back in February. The 20/1 21. It’s ultimately designed to maximize profits and returns across sports betting and is becoming a staple for many when betting on soccer, NFL, and horse racing. 5. The goal of the equation is this: don’t go broke. With hand waving and basic math you can also use it to help guide. ALAN DUDMAN'S P & L. b = the decimal odds – 1. It was believed earlier that winning a bet is. Defining what race reading is. 20 or 20% of their bankroll. It just happens to coincide with log-utility. Australia Sports Betting has developed a free staking plan Excel spreadsheet which doubles as a betting tracker. She. Knappers Hill (Paul Nicholls/Harry Cobden) Unbeaten in bumpers, including a Grade 2, and stretched unbeaten record to 5 with novice hurdle wins in. Kelly himself was an interesting character: a chain smoking Texan who used to be a fighter pilot in the Navy during World War 2, he was also brilliant researcher. Lets make a Kelly Criterion example: Bettingfund: $10. — Gabe Prewitt of the Red Mile has been overseeing the start of the 2023 live racing season here at the. Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair. A race involves M horses, and is described by a normalized vector of winning probabilities p, an inverse-odds vector r and a gambler strategy b. 48 B = 2-1 = 1. She is currently rated 94 and 6/1 6. Find out who the traders are afraid of this Festival. Let us say that your horse (Let us call him Lucky Punter) gets 4/1 odds (or 5. French Horse Racing Tips from the betting experts at betting. 40 together to get 0. Ascot - 15:50: Back Davideo. The Kelly Criterion is a relatively simple math equation to determine the percentage of your bankroll you should bet on any given circumstance, assuming you have an advantage. Four staking plans are compared: full-Kelly, half-Kelly, quarter-Kelly and eighth-Kelly. 55)-0. RaceQuant enlisted our team to use machine learning to more accurately predict the outcome of horse races, to advise betting. Horse Racing Tips: Moon to shine at Exeter in Monday 18/1 double ;. 5/2. Mode 1: You know the true probability of an outcome and the soft bookmaker odds. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for. k. Patrick Weaver: "Bluestocking was beaten in a photo when favourite for a Listed race at Newbury. Don said picking a trifecta winning bet was a test of skill rather than a game of chance. Horse Racing Tips: Moon to shine at Exeter in Monday 18/1 double ; More Horse Racing Tips. Don said picking a trifecta winning bet was a test of skill rather than a game of chance. In Chapter 6, we will talk about some methods in misconceptions in estimating placed probability. In particular, it maximizes the expected growth rate and the. This means that the optimal size of your bet is 10% of your bankroll. There are. Sleep more. 0) than a 5% edge at 1/3 (1. For any queries relating to. 15:20 Pontefract - Back Classy Boy @ 7/4 2. The Kelly criterion is a useful tool for making informed decisions about how to allocate capital when betting on horse races, particularly when considering a single type of bet (Benter 1994) -most. Subsequent to being distributed in 1956, the Kelly criterion was gotten rapidly by players who had the option to apply the formula to horse racing. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. Italian Serie A. For any queries relating to. The formula was developed by Kelly while working at the AT&T Bell. Based on the Kelly criterion, K% = (1 × 0. 55) / 1. The Kelly Criterion also works for horse race betting. Rugby World Cup Final. 70 2pt win Both Point Given and Classy Boy - 7/4 2. 00) and should not include any additional symbols such. You can read more about how it works in this Kelly Criterion Wikipedia article. Second, notice that betting just a tiny bit more than the Kelly criterion suggests leads to decreased profits with higher risk . How to use the Kelly Criterion calculator. 00 – 1) p = 0. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race; How to use Timeform Ratings;Football. I would like to use Kelly Criterion but I do not manage to use it at more bets at the same time. That is the heart of any. He ran his two seasonal best RPRs of 162 and 163 in his first two outings last year, while in 2021, he won the Haldo Gold Cup, won in 2020, and won his Maide Hurdle first time out in 2018. Put simply, the. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. Volleyball Tips. There are n horses in the race, and the probability of horse h winning is πh. Cricket. B=2-1=1. 1-p)The Kelly Criterion is a formula to determine the proper size of a bet with known odds and a definite payout. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. WITH KELLY. John Kelly developed his formula whilst working at AT&T’s Bell Laboratory when attempting to solve their long-distance signal noise issues. If we did this with a stake of £100, when both those orders matched, we would. 10 Ideas for Trifecta Profits (Part 1) The late Don Scott once wrote that the best form of exotic betting is the trifecta. These two factors are then input into the Kelly Criterion equation. All of the major. Matej Uhrín, Gustav Šourek, Ondřej Hubáček, Filip Železný. Paul V. Soon after the paper was published the gambling community somehow came across it and found that it had potential as a perfect betting system for horse racing. Abstract and Figures. You then multiply 2 and 0. You just can't bet at that level. These two factors are then input into the Kelly Criterion equation. 00 – 1) f* =0. forms of gambling, including sports betting. Many pro-bettors around the world recommend the use of the Kelly Criterion or a modified version of it. The formula compares that probability with the odds available, and adjusts the stake accordingly for maximum profitability. A ‘gambler with a private wire’ gets advanced word of the outcome of baseball games. — Gabe Prewitt of the Red Mile has been overseeing the start of the 2023 live racing season here at the. Odds: 5,00. We denote the fractions as b2Rn, so b 0 and 1Tb= 1, where 1 is the vector with all In its simplest possible form, the Kelly Criterion states that, on an even money bet, the percentage of the bankroll to bet is: (Win probability x 2) - 1. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/4 Springwell Bay looks thrown in off 137 at Cheltenham Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Paddy Power Gold Cup can go to a closerHorse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Paul Nicholls' Ditcheat Diary: Daryl Jacob to ride Bravemansgame in Saturday's. It doesn’t take asymmetric utility into account. 25 visually looked very smart when doing his best work at the finish over an inadequate five furlongs at Naas, backing up his ten-length demolition job on. A simplified definition would describe this method. What the Kelly Criterion does is help you decide the perfect level of stake by. 0. Kelly´s theory is designed to maximize the growth of your bank roll (e. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday doubleHorse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage. We’ve along with set up a. Jacot+1. Of course, the Kelly has also been adapted for other “bets,” including blackjack, sports betting, and playing the stock market. Spanish LaLiga. Kelly described. Staked: 249pts Returns: 459. Racing Results & Replays. One was the 'square root' plan whereby a base bet is established, say $20, and each bet you place is $20 plus the square root of any. Finally, in x7 we give some numerical examples to illustrate the methods. 2 days ago · Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday. (You can turn a negative ROI into a positive one — at least in games of skill like horse racing — through greater education and better information. If the downside-case loss is less than 100%, as in the scenario above, a different Kelly formula is required: Kelly % = W/A – (1 – W)/B , where W is the win probability, B is the profit in the event of a win (20%), and A is the potential loss. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: England to finish on high with Argentina win. Correspondence Address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. Take your pick! Download Kelly Criterion Calculator. Satiate to repeat. Alex Fielding. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 4/1 Fry up some Ree Okka on Monday;. Editor. We will show why that holds, but our main goal is to explain the full version. Get a Free £5 Bet on Multiples Every Day! Place £20 worth of Multiples or Bet Builders over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled. Betfair, e-mail [email protected] on Kelly criterion and fractional Kelly strategy for non-mutually exclusive bets, published in Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 19 on 2023-01-17 by Benjamin P. This post provides an introduction. 40) / 1. 50 (or 5/2 with an implied probability of 28. This is how the simplified Kelly looks. 00 being returned. Learn how much you need to stake with the help of our easy-to-use Kelly Criterion bet calculator!Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday doubleYard seeking a fourth win in this since 2014. 7 7/2 when they made their hurdling. Here at Betting. The Kelly Staking Formula. So if your getting 6/4 on an 1/1 shot your edge is 2. resource for various forms of investing too, as its primary. The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. Kelly Criterion And Asset Management. After getting published in 1956, the gambling community got wind of it and realized its prospects in the horse racing betting system. Following the Kelly criterion, the process of betting is closely connected to information theory (K elly Jr, 1956). The Kelly Criterion is a formula to determine the proper size of a bet with known odds and a definite payout. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick;. Betfair, our. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Bailey to score with Gwen in Thursday 14/1 double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: Hughes can get the best out of. 40)-0. Two main concepts in wagering, Kelly criterion and hedging, will be discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/4 Springwell Bay looks thrown in off 137 at Cheltenham Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Paddy Power Gold Cup can go to a closerFeatured Rugby. The number of bets considered here should also be discussed. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. You are here: Home >> Beginner’s Guide >> The Kelly Criterion Once a decision is has been made to wager money on an event, the next decision is to choose how much of your account balance to wager. Kevin Blake's horse racing tips for Saturday come at Newmarket with a 33/1 each-way bet on The Very Man in the feature Cesarewitch Stakes and one in the 15:15 on the same cardNewbury - 14:25 - Back Rainbow Dreamer each-way @ 40/1 41. LEXINGTON, Ky. g. Horse Racing Bet of the Day is replacing our. Following the Kelly criterion, the process of betting is closely connected to information theory (K elly Jr, 1956). Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change. 0= 1. 0 in decimals, or a 20% implied probability of winning) at the Cheltenham Hurdle. In such a case, the Kelly criterion suggests that if one were to go over 20% repeatedly on a low. 35 = 0. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/4 Springwell Bay looks thrown in off 137 at Cheltenham Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Paddy Power Gold Cup can go to a closer10 March 2021. However, the Kelly. widespread, is the Kelly criterion (Kelly Jr, 1956), also known as the geometric mean policy, maximizing the expected long-term growth of wealth. This post will serve as the first of a series to discuss the Kelly criterion. K. Many have found the "half Kelly". And at Caesars, the race took the checkers from NASCAR, which has leaned hard into sports betting as a fan-engagement vehicle. 30 June 2010. ROI = -14. More. Use this if you have a crystal ball that tells you the true probabilities. Kelly Criterion mathematical equation takes into account your bankroll, your own calculated winning probability of the outcome you are betting on, and the odds available from the bookmaker. The Kelly criterion, which was first published in 1956, was soon adopted by gamblers who were able to use the formula for horse racing. 0 (100%), but if you do not want to wager the full. 55)-0. 2. Kelly of AT&T Bell Laboratories, the Kelly Criterion is a formula designed to boost betting profits by determining the ideal percentage of capital to. Kelly betting systems are ones that use the Kelly criterion. 14% July = -7. Duhallow Tommy showed a fairly useful level of form in bumpers last season, opening his account in that sphere at the third attempt at Fontwell in January, and he. Get a £5 Free Bet on Multiples - Every Day! Place £20 worth of Multiples or Bet Builders over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 bet to use on Multiples. 35 * 0. For any queries relating to Betting. Any horse racing system must have a money management component built in. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a. Add your expected win probability for the selection you have chosen in the cell called “Win Probability”, using values between 0% and 100%. Now, if we return to the figures we already provided, the equation will look like this: ( (2 x 0. It helps tells us the odds or likelihood of each outcome and helps us determine what size bet to place on each outcome. Horse racing tips From Cork on Wednesday 16 September 2020. 89% of my bankroll on any race (still using the Pace of Horse factor). L. Suppose you are betting on a horse race event at the Cheltenham Hurdle, and the odds offered for your horse in a race is 5. Bell and Cover (1988), discuss a game-theoretical optimality of Kelly portfolios. If a fully Kelly stake was 8%, then the half-, quarter- and eighth-Kelly stakes would be 4%, 2% and 1% respectively. Brechin Castle (Ire) B. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: . 8. Of course, the bracket has to be reduced in this year's race because of a lack of strength and depth. Betfair have enlisted the help of the experts at Timeform to bring you the best ante-post analysis for the 2021 Cheltenham Festival (March 16-19). Get the best bets for this Saturday's horse racing at Ascot and beyond from tipsters Kevin Blake, Tony Calvin, Kate Tracey and Timeform. Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Off Topic > Off Topic - General: Kelly Criterion QuestionThe Kelly Criterion Model is a fascinating model that takes little knowledge of sports to be successful if executed properly. 2) From another angle. 60 x 1. He's a BIG player in the financial markets and I'm sure he moves that kind of money all the time. By E. And at Caesars, the race took the checkers from NASCAR, which has leaned hard into sports betting as a fan-engagement vehicle. T&Cs apply. It is an effective way to manage your. What is the Kelly Criterion formula? The basic Kelly Criterion formula is: (bp-q)/b. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Criterion is a 12 year old horse that was born in 2011 and raced from 2013 to 2016. 82pts. Timeform's Andrew Asquith highlights a Nap, Next Best and Each-Way selection at Beverley on Thursday. Daily Racing Multiple. Subsequent to being distributed in 1956, the Kelly criterion was gotten rapidly by players who had the option to apply the formula to horse racing. Kelly Criterion User Name: Remember Me? Password: Google Site Search: Get RDSS: Sartin Library: RDSS FAQs: Conduct: Register: Site FAQ: Members List: Today's Posts: Search: General Discussion General Horse Racing DiscussionRespected under a 4 lb penalty. Well, duh, the title is The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack, Sports Betting and Stock Market. These two factors are then input into the Kelly Criterion equation. There are two basic components to the Kelly Criterion. Cricket. For any queries relating to Betting. Based on the Kelly criterion, K% = (1 × 0. The course stages racing over distances up to 1850m, with 4 chutes on the back half of the track. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. 89% of my bankroll on any race (still using the Pace of Horse factor). 6 (60% chance of success). 2 Kelly gambling In Kelly gambling, we place a xed fraction of our total wealth (assumed positive) on nbets. Brechin Castle cost £165,000 after winning his point in impressive fashion and he created an excellent. , 2011), which. TBM incorporates Race Card data for UK/IRE Horse Racing and UK Greyhound Racing. How to Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. Timeform best bets. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, we can calculate the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet as: f* = ( (2. e. The Kelly Criterion (a. What is the Kelly Criterion formula? The basic Kelly Criterion formula is: (bp-q)/b. Racing. On 40. However, in order to reach that conclusion, we must wager with a flat betting plan for a large number of bets. However, for any of those outcomes, there are only two outcomes to the gambler's bankroll: The gambler bet on the correct outcome of the team game. Follow the Timeform Tips daily on Betfair. Rugby Union Tips. many horses; he assumed the track take to be zero. 40) / 1 = 0. 89% of my bankroll on any race (still using the Pace of Horse factor). “Fortune’s Formula” is the Kelly Criterion from J. Cricket. 16 August 2023. e. Horse Racing Tips: Moon to shine at Exeter in Monday 18/1 double ;. Thirsk - 15:10 - Back Granny B. The two-year-old races at Royal Ascot are always a source of great excitement and expectation amongst both the racing and bloodstock fraternities. input 0. The Kelly Criterion – also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Staking Plan – takes elements from fixed, percentage and progressive staking to create somewhat of a hybrid staking plan. 33pts. By three laps. Horse Racing Schedule; Harness Racing Schedule; Stakes Races Schedule; Kentucky Derby Prep Races; Racetracks; Odds. But as always, the dots connect and your circle of competence will play a major role in determining the probabilities of. So if the chance of winning on a single bet is 80%, the bettor should wager 60% of one’s bankroll. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 66/1 Jazzie to spring a surprise at Fairyhouse;. Thorp is the real deal, but he's not talking about horse racing. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. Choose your own Horse Racing bet to boost by claiming a MyOddsboost token. 45) – 0. 45)/ (2. Satiate should go close in this restricted $5k claimer on the main track. Kelly Criterion recommend risking 6% of your. 52 = 0. The Kelly criterion was used by horse racing gamblers in the late 1950s. Featured Horse Racing. It functions as an investment scale, balancing the equity between risk and reward. But then the prices started. It is a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. com. However, for any of those outcomes, there are only two outcomes to the gambler's bankroll: The gambler bet on the correct outcome of the team game. we will be breaking down everything you need to know about the Kelly criterion betting system and how you can use it to enhance your betting system and strat. many horses; he assumed the track take to be zero. This shows that according to the Kelly Criterion formula, you should stake 25% of the amounts you have set for betting. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the bettor would calculate the optimal bet size as follows: f = (0. Back Test your. The Kelly criterion: exploiting favorable bets and the stock market In many ways this is my favorite topic to talk about. In addition, betting with the Kelly Criterion may occasionally be worse than constant betting even after several thousand bets. A head the other way this month would have seen a profit, but the bedding-in period is now over, and we look to kick on in August. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. Such an outcome may apply to blackjack and horse racing, but rarely to capital markets investments. Our bet increase will be 2% of that 25% profit ($250 x 2% = $5), so our previous bet amount of $20 will increase by $5, thus, $20 + $5 = a new bet size of $25. In addition to our automated calculator above, you can also download our excel version below. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. The number of bets considered here should also be discussed. 1. This post is Part 2 of a series on the Kelly criterion and its application to sports betting. Racing Results & Replays. Kelly % = W-[(1-W)/R] Where: W = Winning. 00. That’s exactly where the Kelly Criterion method of staking or bankroll management comes into play. Next, you take 0.